Why SandiskStock Dropped (Again) on Friday
Axe Cap view
SanDisk Sell-Off Misses the Mark for SA Investors
SanDisk’s slide ignores key technical differences with new Chinese DRAM tech and prompts a rand-focused rethink.
SanDisk’s stock dropped sharply last week, rattled by fears of competition from Chinese DRAM maker CXMT and inflation worries. But this sell-off misunderstands the product lines. SanDisk doesn’t compete in DRAM memory chips, it focuses on flash memory storage. That distinction matters because the new Chinese tech won’t immediately disrupt SanDisk’s niche. Instead, South African investors should watch how US inflation and Fed rate hikes pressure borrowing costs locally, which influences the rand and capital-intensive firms like MTN and Sasol. A stronger USD against the ZAR (USD/ZAR) reflects such risk aversion. If the dollar continues to surge, it could weigh on exporters but lift resource shares. Keep an eye on how the rand handles widening rate differentials rather than panicking over SanDisk’s woes. What could upend this view? If broader inflation accelerates unexpectedly or supply chain issues hit flash memory hard, the tech space could get hit harder than anticipated. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
Avoid SanDisk directly but watch USD/ZAR for signs of Fed-driven pressure on the rand and South African exporters. Consider selective exposure to commodity-linked shares that benefit from rand depreciation.
- USD/ZAR
- Sasol
- MTN
- Higher US inflation than expected
- Unexpected supply-chain disruptions impacting flash memory demand
6/10
SanDisk stock declined for the fifth consecutive day, dropping 3.2% on Friday amid investor concerns over competition from Chinese DRAM specialist CXMT's new 4F square technology and rising inflation data. However, the author argues these concerns are overblown since CXMT makes DRAM while SanDisk does not, making them not direct competitors.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.