AST SpaceMobile Has $3.7 Billion in Liquidity and No Commercial Revenue. Here's How to Value That.
2026-10-10 16:05
•Leo Sun •The Motley Fool
•• •••••• Axe Cap view
AST SpaceMobile’s Big Liquidity Bet is a High-Risk Growth Play
AST SpaceMobile’s cash buffer and future satellite rollout promise growth, but the lack of revenue today demands caution.
AST SpaceMobile is sitting on $3.7 billion in cash yet makes no money commercially. That’s a lot of runway, and it’s backing massive ambitions to build and launch a constellation of low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites aimed at delivering direct-to-cell broadband globally. Growth looks impressive on paper, with expected revenue leaping from $169 million in 2026 to $1.73 billion by 2028. But there’s no guarantee these projections pan out, especially given the capital intensity and execution risks inherent to satellite tech. For South African investors linked through the dollar-to-rand (USD/ZAR) exchange, the rand’s relative stability against the USD is a double-edged sword here—it makes funding in dollars expensive, but also keeps dollar returns attractive when converted locally. This isn’t a play for the faint-hearted or those chasing dividends; AST is a pure growth bet. South African telecoms like MTN are still expanding terrestrial networks and are likely to remain the backbone of connectivity here for years. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
I’d watch AST SpaceMobile closely but avoid buying now—wait until they prove commercial traction or partnerships start driving revenue. For direct exposure to satellite growth, it’s too early and too speculative, especially with USD/ZAR volatility potentially amplifying losses.
- ASTS
- USD/ZAR
- MTN
- Execution delays or failures in satellite deployment
- USD/ZAR currency fluctuations increasing capital costs
5/10
AST SpaceMobile, a LEO satellite developer with a $15.3 billion market cap, currently generates no commercial revenue despite holding $3.7 billion in liquidity. The company relies on government contracts and prepayments from telecom partners. However, analysts project significant growth potential as AST plans to expand its satellite constellation to 45 satellites next year, with revenue expected to surge from $169 million in 2026 to $1.73 billion by 2028.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.