SpaceX Stock Has Stumbled Since Its IPO. History Says It Could Be Up by This Much in 1 Year.
2026-07-16 07:06
•Chris Neiger •The Motley Fool
••••• •• Axe Capital view
SpaceX IPO: Tempered Gains Likely Amid High Risks
Historical IPO trends suggest modest upside for SpaceX, but big execution risks loom.
SpaceX’s IPO debut was met with excitement, yet the stock dipping below its $150 IPO price is hardly surprising given the company’s huge cash burn and bets on ambitious tech like Starship rockets and orbital AI data centers. Over 26 years, large IPOs typically inch up 3.5-4% in their first year—not anywhere near the $300-$800 price targets floating around. For South African investors, this means caution; the USD/ZAR rate will likely play a bigger role than direct tech exposure here. Companies like Naspers or Prosus might seem tempting proxies but rely heavily on more proven internet businesses than speculative aerospace ventures. If capital markets turn less tolerant of unprofitable giants or if SpaceX’s expensive wagers flop, the shares could falter further. On the flip side, successful execution or breakthroughs could surprise positively, but that’s a big ask. this is just my opinion and not financial advice
Wait and watch SpaceX IPO shares or USD/ZAR momentum before taking exposure; better to focus on local counters with clearer earnings visibility like Naspers or MTN.
- SPCX
- USD/ZAR
- Naspers
- SpaceX execution failure on costly projects
- Increased rand volatility impacting foreign investment appetite
6/10
SpaceX stock, which opened at $150 over a month ago, is now trading below that level. Based on 26 years of historical IPO data, large IPOs typically gain only 3.5-4% in their first year, suggesting SpaceX shares could reach around $156 within 11 months. The company faces headwinds including unprofitability, massive capital expenditures ($27 billion in 2025), risky bets on Starship rocket technology, and an unproven orbital AI data center plan. Analysts' price targets range from $300-$800, but historical trends suggest more modest gains.
This article was originally published by The Motley Fool and has been adapted here for Axe Capital Trading News.
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Author: Chris Neiger
Categories: Equities, IPOs, Technology, AI, Semiconductors
Tickers: SPCX, JEF
Sentiment: Negative - The company is unprofitable with a $5 billion net loss in 2025, spending wildly on unproven technologies (Starship and orbital data centers), and faces significant execution risks. Historical IPO data suggests minimal gains ahead, and investor skepticism about tech spending is growing. Mentioned only as the source of historical IPO performance data used in the analysis; no direct investment thesis or sentiment expressed about the company itself.
Keywords: IPO performance, SpaceX stock, Starship rocket, orbital AI data centers, capital expenditures, unprofitable companies, tech spending skepticism
Insights:
- SPCX: Negative: The company is unprofitable with a $5 billion net loss in 2025, spending wildly on unproven technologies (Starship and orbital data centers), and faces significant execution risks. Historical IPO data suggests minimal gains ahead, and investor skepticism about tech spending is growing.
- JEF: Neutral: Mentioned only as the source of historical IPO performance data used in the analysis; no direct investment thesis or sentiment expressed about the company itself.