SpaceX vs. AST SpaceMobile: Which Space Stock Will get Your Portfolio Into Orbit in 2026?
2026-07-17 19:19
•Brendan Coffey •The Motley Fool
••• •••••••••••• Axe Capital view
Space Stocks and What They Mean for the JSE in 2026
A look at SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile’s 2026 outlook and their relevance for South African investors.
SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile both push satellite technology forward, but their paths couldn’t be more different. SpaceX’s scale and Starlink subscribers are impressive, yet its huge capital burn—negative free cash flow heading toward $67 billion by 2027—is a glaring risk. For South African investors, the sheer size and uncertainty make it hard to back confidently. AST SpaceMobile is smaller but more focused, building a unique direct-to-device cellular network with strong partnerships. Its faster route to profitability by 2027 is more appealing, particularly for those who want exposure to satellite tech without bleeding cash for years. Currency-wise, the rand could remain pressured if the USD stays strong, but tech’s global reach offers some diversification. I’d watch local tech proxies like Naspers and Prosus for indirect exposure instead of jumping into either stock directly. The main risk? AST’s profitability isn’t guaranteed, and a tech downturn or delays could hurt both. this is just my opinion and not financial advice
Avoid direct exposure to SpaceX due to its capital intensity and unclear profits; consider small positions in AST SpaceMobile if comfortable with risk. For local exposure, hold Naspers or Prosus as long-term satellite tech proxies.
- USD/ZAR
- Naspers
- Prosus
- Extended capital burn impacts SpaceX's valuation
- AST SpaceMobile missing profitability targets
6/10
SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile are competing in the satellite communications space with different business models. SpaceX dominates rocket launches and operates Starlink with 10.3 million subscribers but faces massive capital requirements and negative free cash flow of -$14 billion in FY 2025. AST SpaceMobile is building a direct-to-device cellular network with partnerships from major carriers and expects profitability by 2027, though it currently has negative free cash flow of -$1.1 billion. The article recommends AST SpaceMobile as the better 2026 buy due to its more focused business plan and earlier path to profitability.
This article was originally published by The Motley Fool and has been adapted here for Axe Capital Trading News.
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Author: Brendan Coffey
Categories: Equities, Earnings, Autos
Tickers: SPCX, ASTS, T, TBB, TPA, TPC, VZ, GOOG, GOOGL, GOOGM, GOOGN, TSLA
Sentiment: Positive - While SpaceX has strong market support, massive revenue growth (33% YoY to $18.7B), and dominates the launch market, it faces significant headwinds including a $5B net loss in FY 2025, negative free cash flow of -$14 billion, and projected worsening to -$67 billion in 2027. The company's path to profitability is uncertain despite analyst projections. AST SpaceMobile is recommended as the better 2026 buy due to its more focused business strategy, partnerships with major carriers (AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone), accelerating revenue growth (1,600% YoY to $70.9M), and projected profitability by 2027. The company is expected to achieve positive free cash flow by 2029, earlier than SpaceX's uncertain timeline.
Keywords: satellite communications, space stocks, Starlink, direct-to-device cellular, free cash flow, profitability timeline, capital requirements
Insights:
- SPCX: Neutral: While SpaceX has strong market support, massive revenue growth (33% YoY to $18.7B), and dominates the launch market, it faces significant headwinds including a $5B net loss in FY 2025, negative free cash flow of -$14 billion, and projected worsening to -$67 billion in 2027. The company's path to profitability is uncertain despite analyst projections.
- ASTS: Positive: AST SpaceMobile is recommended as the better 2026 buy due to its more focused business strategy, partnerships with major carriers (AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone), accelerating revenue growth (1,600% YoY to $70.9M), and projected profitability by 2027. The company is expected to achieve positive free cash flow by 2029, earlier than SpaceX's uncertain timeline.
- T: Neutral: AT&T is mentioned as a strategic partner and equity holder in AST SpaceMobile, positioning it to benefit from the company's success, but the article does not provide specific analysis of AT&T's investment or performance.