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Should You Buy Nike Stock Before Oct. 1?

2026-09-26 19:29 •Will Healy •The Motley Fool Mixed Axe Cap view: Neutral •Rates•Equities•Earnings•Capital Returns•Financials •NKE•ONON•ADDYY

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Nike’s Woes Offer No Shortcut for JSE Investors

Nike’s drop looks tempting, but South African investors should tread carefully given its uncertain turnaround and limited local leverage.

Nike’s stock has taken a beating, losing 80% since its 2021 peak and dropping out of the S&P 100. It’s hard not to feel the pain when a global brand struggles with falling sales and dividend payouts that outpace free cash flow. For JSE investors, Nike’s challenges don’t translate smoothly into local opportunity. The rand’s current softness against the dollar (USD/ZAR) means imported luxury goods and branded apparel remain pricey here, potentially dampening any quick rebound in demand. South African retailers like Woolworths or Mr Price, which rely on international supply chains, might feel some indirect impact if Nike manages a comeback or deeper decline, but that’s a stretch. For now, it’s wiser for local investors to watch Nike from the sidelines and focus on counters with clearer domestic influence. The risk Nike’s earnings shock will be worse than expected is real, considering the rising competition from online-first players like On Holding (ONON). this is just our opinion and not financial advice

How I would invest

Avoid Nike for now and wait for signs of stable revenue growth. Instead, monitor USD/ZAR for currency-driven investment opportunities closer to home.

What I would watch
  • NKE
  • USD/ZAR
  • Woolworths
What could go wrong
  • Nike fails to regain market share post-report
  • Rand volatility worsens import costs for local retailers
How strongly I feel

5/10

Nike stock has plunged to a 12-year low and was removed from the S&P 100 index due to strategic missteps and rising competition. While the stock trades at a low P/E ratio of 17 with a 4.6% dividend yield, analysts forecast continued revenue declines. The article advises investors to avoid buying before the Oct. 1 earnings report until Nike demonstrates it can reinvigorate revenue growth, as dividend payouts are exceeding free cash flow.

Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.

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