Skip to content
Axe Capital logo Axe Capital Trading News

Rivian Stock Is Going to $19 According to This Wall Street Analyst. Here's Why They May Be Right.

2026-09-30 21:30 •Ryan Vanzo •The Motley Fool Positive Axe Cap view: Selective •Forex•Autos•Equities •RIVN•TSLA•UBER

Axe Cap view

Rivian’s Robotaxi Play: Worth a Look but Hard to Map Locally

Rivian targets growth with affordable SUVs and robotaxi deals, but South African investors should approach with caution.

Rivian’s $19 price target from Cantor Fitzgerald highlights potential upside from its new R2 SUV and robotaxi partnerships, like Uber buying 50,000 vehicles. While gross margins of 2% lag behind Tesla’s 19%, there’s room to improve with scale. The idea of supplying robotaxi fleets rather than directly running them could be a smart niche, but the market still questions Rivian’s execution and profitability timeline. For South African investors, Rivian’s story is far removed from the local economy and currency volatility. The rand’s recent volatility against the dollar (USD/ZAR) means foreign exposure is risky without hedging. Instead of jumping in, focus on rand-hedged ways to play global EV trends or watch local industrial suppliers like Barloworld or Motus who might benefit indirectly. The main risk here is Rivian missing delivery or scaling targets, which would tank the stock further. this is just our opinion and not financial advice

How I would invest

Avoid direct Rivian exposure for now. Consider watching local industrial plays like Barloworld or Motus for indirect EV market benefits while staying mindful of rand strength. Use USD/ZAR levels to gauge forex risk if you must invest offshore.

What I would watch
  • RIVN
  • USD/ZAR
  • Barloworld
  • Motus
What could go wrong
  • Rivian failing to improve margins or scale production
  • Rand weakening sharply against the dollar increasing FX losses on offshore positions
How strongly I feel

5/10

Cantor Fitzgerald maintains a neutral rating on Rivian while setting a $19 price target, implying 20% upside. The article argues Rivian's valuation is underappreciated relative to Tesla, citing growth potential from its affordable R2 SUV launch and exposure to the robotaxi market. Rivian's gross margins of 2% lag Tesla's 19%, but could improve with economies of scale. The company is positioning itself as a supplier to robotaxi operators like Uber, which agreed to purchase up to 50,000 R2 SUVs.

Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.

Read the original story