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Charles Schwab's Next Earnings Report on Oct. 15 Could Send the Stock Soaring. Here's Why.

2026-10-13 11:22 •Eric Volkman •The Motley Fool Positive Axe Cap view: Selective •Macro•Central Banks•Equities•Earnings•M&A •SCHW•SCHWPD•SCHWPJ

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Charles Schwab Poised for Gains on Rate-Driven Earnings Boost

Schwab’s Q3 report could surprise given its growing net interest income amid Fed hikes and client growth.

Charles Schwab is tapping into a shift that South African banks know well: rising interest rates can bolster net interest income—the margin between what banks pay on deposits and earn on loans. With the Fed’s recent rate hikes, Schwab is expected to report strong revenue and earnings growth this quarter, driven primarily by net interest income rather than trading commissions or asset management fees. That’s notable because South African lenders like Standard Bank or FirstRand also benefit when rates go up, but Schwab’s 1.4 million new accounts show it’s winning market share aggressively. For us, this highlights how interest rate trends remain a key profit lever globally and locally. However, if the Fed pauses or reverses rate hikes sooner than expected, Schwab’s growth could disappoint and pressure shares. The USD/ZAR might appreciate if the Fed signals dovish moves, hurting exporters and local banks. this is just our opinion and not financial advice

How I would invest

Watch Schwab for a breakout post-earnings; invest selectively in JSE banks like Standard Bank to play the domestic rate cycle. Be ready to trim if global rates fall unexpectedly.

What I would watch
  • SCHW
  • Standard Bank
  • USD/ZAR
What could go wrong
  • Unexpected Fed policy reversal
  • Weaker US economic data impacting earnings
How strongly I feel

6/10

Charles Schwab is expected to report strong Q3 2026 earnings with revenue projected at $7.2 billion (17% growth) and adjusted net income at $1.66 per share (27% growth). The company's shift toward net interest income as its primary revenue driver, combined with recent Federal Reserve rate hikes and strong customer acquisition (1.4 million new accounts in Q2), positions it well for outperformance versus analyst expectations.

Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.

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