Bull Market Just Completed Year 4. Will It Finish Year 5? Here's What History Says.

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Will the U.S. Bull Market Carry Into Year Five? A South African Angle

The S&P 500 bull run has beaten the odds so far; what does this mean for South African investors watching from the rand side?

The U.S. bull market has just entered its fifth year, a milestone that historically most long bull runs surpass. With expected earnings growth of 27% annually over the next five years and a forward P/E around 19, this recovery feels grounded. But rising interest rates and the speculative frenzy around AI stocks make me cautious, especially as capital costs rise. South African investors should watch USD/ZAR closely; a stronger dollar on U.S. rate hikes could pressure our currency and derail Rand-hedge sectors like Naspers and Prosus. These giants are currently neutral, reflecting underlying AI strength but vulnerability to global shifts. On the banks, rising rates could boost profits, but if the currency weakens too much or global markets stumble, credit growth could slow, hitting FirstRand and Standard Bank. Our view could be wrong if inflation moderates quicker than expected, allowing global rates to fall and easing rand pressure, which would brighten local equities’ outlook. this is just our opinion and not financial advice