The S&P 500 Has Risen 30.6% in the First 20 Months of Trump's Second Term, Just Ahead of the 28.5% Gain Over the Same Stretch of His First Term. Here's Why That Comparison Matters for Investors Heading Into the Midterms.

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S&P 500 Rally: What It Means for the Rand and SA Investors

Strong US equity gains under Trump's second term offer a nuanced signal for South African markets ahead of midterms.

The S&P 500’s robust 30.6% rise in the first 20 months of Trump’s second term slightly outpaces the strong performance seen in his first term. This matters for South African investors mainly through the USD/ZAR lens. A buoyant US stock market tends to attract capital back to the US, putting pressure on emerging market currencies like the rand. That said, South African exporters could benefit from a weaker rand if global risk appetite holds. Domestic banks such as Standard Bank and FirstRand might also feel the impact, as a stronger dollar typically means higher funding costs. History tells us midterm elections can bring volatility, especially if the US ends up with a divided government—which markets generally don’t like. If that scenario emerges, rand weakness could deepen, pressuring local shares sensitive to dollar movements. But if US growth stays resilient, selected SA equities tied to commodity exports—think AngloGold Ashanti—may hold up well. this is just our opinion and not financial advice