Will the Stock Market Crash? History Gives a 95% Reason to Stay Calm
2026-10-01 10:15
•Geoffrey Seiler •The Motley Fool
•••••••••• ••• Axe Cap view
Why South African Investors Should Stay Calm Amid Crash Fears
Historical patterns and local factors suggest no rushing to sell on crash fears right now.
The chatter about an imminent stock market crash is loud lately, and it’s easy to feel uneasy. But history shows that in the year following US midterm elections, markets have risen about 95% of the time. That’s not a guarantee, but a strong pattern. For South African investors, this period often sees rand volatility tied to global risk appetite—the USD/ZAR can swing, but equities like Naspers and Prosus, with their US tech exposure, tend to hold up better when the rand weakens. Meanwhile, our banks—FirstRand and Nedbank—have decent earnings momentum, cushioning local markets. The AI bubble talk feels premature here; unlike in the US, SA tech remains relatively modest in valuation terms. The smarter move is steady buying—what we call dollar-cost averaging—rather than trying to time market peaks or crashes. We might be wrong if inflation suddenly spikes hard or a major global event shakes risk assets, but patience pays more often than panic. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
Buy shares in FirstRand and Naspers steadily over time, embracing rand volatility as an opportunity rather than a threat. Avoid trying to time the market based on crash headlines.
- FirstRand
- Naspers
- USD/ZAR
- Sudden inflation hike lifting interest rates sharply
- Geopolitical crisis triggering global risk-off and rand sell-off
7/10
Despite concerns about a potential stock market crash driven by weak consumer spending, Fed rate hikes, and AI bubble risks, historical data shows a 95% probability the market will rise in the 12 months following midterm elections. The author recommends dollar-cost averaging into broad index ETFs rather than attempting to time the market.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.