Wall Street Is Worried About a Market Crash. 75 Years of History Says Investors Should Be Watching Something Else.

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Forget Crashes, Focus on Earnings Growth

History shows enduring profits beat panic amid market storms.

South African investors often fret about global shocks and rand volatility, but the real driver of wealth is steady corporate earnings growth, not timing crashes. The U.S. market, represented by the S&P 500, has averaged nearly 8% annual returns even after severe downturns. That’s a lesson for the JSE. Stocks like Naspers and MTN, even with their ups and downs, ultimately track global tech and telecom earnings growth. Locally, banks such as Standard Bank and Nedbank similarly benefit if the economy stabilizes. Chasing a crash or fleeing volatility rarely pays off. Instead, broad exposure to well-managed companies with strong earnings momentum pays dividends over decades. The rand’s swings in USD/ZAR also create buying windows, not sell signals. One risk: an unexpected sharp slowdown in global tech could drag Naspers and Prosus harder than anticipated. Still, the data pushes us toward patience and a focus on fundamentals. this is just our opinion and not financial advice