Eli Lilly Expects Up to $87 Billion in 2026 Revenue. Here's Why the Stock Still Looks Undervalued.

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Eli Lilly’s Growth Surge: Too Big to Ignore but Hard to Play Locally

Eli Lilly’s booming weight loss drug pipeline is lifting revenues sharply, yet South African investors face limited direct access and currency risks.

Eli Lilly’s explosive growth, driven by GLP-1 weight loss drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound, projects revenues hitting $87 billion in 2026, up from $65 billion this year. That’s big, even if it’s a US pharma story. The company’s valuation, at 32 times forward earnings, seems reasonable considering the pipeline’s promise, such as retatrutide and EloraTZP. However, this isn’t a company you find on the JSE. South African investors relying on offshore exposure should note that a weakening rand against the dollar—USD/ZAR remains volatile around 18.50—could eat into returns. Local financials like Sanlam or FirstRand won't directly benefit from Lilly’s surge but may feel some pressure if rand weakness persists or global growth slows. For anyone without US exposure, this is a reminder to watch the USD/ZAR closely when chasing growth stocks abroad. The view could be wrong if global inflation eases quickly and policy pivots, reducing demand for obesity treatments. this is just our opinion and not financial advice