Clear market notes built around the JSE, the rand, and what matters locally.

2026-09-26 11:30 • The Motley Fool Neutral Axe Cap view: Selective

The article argues that most stocks underperform the market, with only 40-45% beating it annually and dropping to 30-35% over five years. Research shows just 46 companies created half the stock market's value over a century. The solution is diversification with exposure to many stocks to catch rare big winners, following a 'power law' strategy where a few home runs drive returns rather than consistent average performance.

Axe note: Most stocks don’t keep up with the market, so broad diversification is key—especially here in South Africa.

2026-09-26 11:30 • The Motley Fool Positive Axe Cap view: Selective

Historical data shows the S&P 500 has delivered positive returns 95% of the time in the 12 months following midterm elections since 1938, with year three of the presidential cycle averaging 14.5% annual returns. The article recommends investors stay invested through broad-based ETFs rather than sitting on the sidelines, citing the market's shift toward large tech companies with strong fundamentals and the transformative potential of AI technology.

Axe note: The US midterm election cycle’s 95% success rate in driving S&P 500 gains offers a timely cue for rand investors.

2026-09-26 11:28 • The Motley Fool Positive Axe Cap view: Selective

Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH) offers a lower expense ratio of 0.07% versus Vanguard Real Estate ETF's (VNQ) 0.13%, but VNQ provides higher dividend yield (3.7% vs 2.9%) and broader diversification with 139 holdings. Over 5 years, SCHH delivered stronger returns ($1,101 vs $1,059 on $1,000 invested) with lower volatility. The article recommends VNQ for long-term income investors despite higher fees, citing superior dividend payouts and diversification.

Axe note: Comparing Schwab's SCHH and Vanguard's VNQ ETFs with a South African investor's lens.